Market Overview

Both large and small companies are making unprecedented investments in oncology R&D, in an effort to emulate the success of new targeted therapies such as Herceptin, Avastin, Glivec, Nexavar and Erbitux.

Underpinning that success have been real improvements in therapeutic options for a range of cancers, including marked survival increments in areas of poor prognosis, such as kidney cancer (e.g., Sutent); more effective therapies, tailored to genetically defined subgroups, for widespread malignancies (Herceptin for breast cancer); and innovations that have transformed fatal into chronic diseases (Glivec for chronic myeloid leukaemia).

At the same time, success has come at a price. Not is the oncology marketplace getting more crowded, raising the bar for differentiation in a category in which many products are focusing on the same disease mechanisms, but the premium prices charged for newer therapies are stretching healthcare budgets. Increasingly cancer drugs are losing the special status that once guaranteed uptake at any cost and are coming under the same cost-effectiveness scrutiny as other components of healthcare.

In today’s payer’s market, oncology companies are being forced to re-assess their strategies and build a compelling value equation for their products that will meet the needs of a whole range of stakeholders, each with their own agenda. And they must do this while finding a way to recoup R&D costs from niche products without the patient volumes that have driven blockbuster brands in the past.

Key findings

Worldwide sales of cancer drugs are forecast to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 12-15% from 2008, reaching US$75-80 billion by 2012. That would represent almost double the projected growth rate for the pharmaceutical market as a whole over the same period.

At the same time, growth of the category is expected to slow over the next five years, with a diminishing contribution from the existing top oncology markets – the US, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain. These countries accounted for 71% of oncology product sales worldwide in 2007. By 2012, however, their share of overall sales could be down to 65%.

Increased cost-sensitivity among payers, market crowding and the loss of cancer’s ‘special status’ will make the market much for challenging for established oncology players and new contenders over the next few years.

Key features of this report

Detailed analysis of the new forces driving growth in the worldwide oncology market.

Overview of the cost pressures on healthcare systems and growing recourse to health technology assessment that are complicating market entry for new cancer drugs.

Analysis of NICE decisions on premium-priced oncology products, the wider political context in which these decisions are taken, and what they could mean for oncology players in other markets.

Detailed exploration of how a multi-faceted value proposition needs to be constructed for new cancer therapies, including survival benefits, cost-effectiveness and more personal components such as quality of life.

Use this report to

Detailed understanding of the new growth drivers in the world oncology market and the emerging threats to continued growth

Insight into how healthcare systems are evolving in their efforts to manage cost inflation and how these changes present significant challenges to oncology market growth.

Compare approaches to health technology assessment in key markets such as the UK and the US; understand how these raise the bar to entry for new oncology products.

Detailed insight into the different components of value that will enable new cancer therapies to carve out niches in the new payer-dominated environment.

Discover

What will be the market trend for oncology products in the years to 2012 and beyond?

How has the treatment paradigm for oncology changed in terms of targeted therapies, niche indications and payer influence?

What are governments, HTA agencies, health insurers and other influencers/payers in key markets such as the UK and the US doing to address budgetary pressure from pharmaceuticals in general and new oncology products in particular?
 
 
  Table of Contents : 
Launching Next Generation Oncology Products Oncology market analysis
The payor response
Addressing market challenges
Summary
 
Chapter 1 Oncology market analysis
Introduction
Oncology outpaces pharma sales growth
Payor leverage
Oncology growth drivers
The growing importance of targeted therapy
Establishing a presence in oncology
Falling by the wayside
How cancer is different
Cancer is many diseases
Room for growth in oncology
How cancer is not so different
Budgetary pressure prevails
Summary
 
Chapter 2 The payor response
Introduction
HTAs are here to stay
Health technology assessment in the US
Volume versus price
Pharma moves to head off coercive action
More comparative effectiveness research
Growing momentum for government involvement in CER
Already some restrictions
Shifting Costs to the Patient
Shifting the cost to the patient
Health technology assessment in Europe
Different countries, different values
Comparing Uptake
NICE’s record on cancer drugs
Cancer drugs recently turned down by NICE
Tykerb
Erbitux
Nexavar
Yondelis
Hycamtin
Making space for cancer drugs
Higher threshold for end-of-life therapies
Concerns about the new criteria
Flexible pricing
Skirting NICE
Not Just The UK
NICE is not the final hurdle
Hard sell
Biosimilars on the horizon
Summary
 
Chapter 3 Addressing market challenges
Introduction
It’s all about value
Establishing a strong value proposition
Selecting endpoints
Adding to the gold standard
Using subgroups
Post-marketing studies
From efficacy to effectiveness
Getting marketing involved
What price innovation?
Pricing for access
Prioritizing the correct indication
Integrated treatment packages
New markets, new opportunities
Getting the launch right
Lack of access for sales representatives
Quality trumps quantity
Increasing patient power
Using the media
Index
 
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Oncology growth contribution
Figure 1.2: Targeted therapies driving oncology growth
Figure 1.3: The rush to invest in oncology R&D
Figure 1.4: Number of phase II – IV clinical trials by disease class, 2005-2007
Figure 2.5: Cost, LE and CE in metastatic colorectal cancer
Figure 2.6: Cancer drug sales in Western Europe per 100,000 inhabitants, € thousands
Figure 2.7: Avastin Uptake in E13 Countries
Figure 2.8: Erbitux uptake in E13 Countries
Figure 2.9: Breast Cancer – Cost of Innovation (20-year horizon)
Figure 2.10: Disparities in European supply of medical oncologists
Figure 2.11: Oncology brand patent expiries, September 2007-2012
Figure 3.12: The changing status of oncology products
Figure 3.13: Innovation stakeholders
Figure 3.14: Finding the right level in industry-gatekeeper partnerships
 
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Top 10 global therapeutic classes 2007/08
Table 1.2: Leading biologics, global sales, 2008
Table 1.3: Estimated UK costs for targeted cancer therapies  
 

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